Management and uncertainty: the example of South Georgia
Decisions on fishery management are often made with some degree of uncertainty in scientific advice. Such uncertainty is unlikely to be avoided even though further research should reduce its degree. It seems useful to consider ways in which CCAMLR can improve its ability to take decisions in the face of uncertainty. From an examination of Articles IX 2(f) and XV 2(e, d) of the CCAMLR Convention it follows that a comparison of the immediate and long-term effects of any one proposed measure with those of any other measure (including the effects of doing nothing) could provide a procedure for providing advice that could cope with uncertainty. The question is addressed specifically in terms of the fishery of Notothenia rossii around South Georgia, but the principles examined may be relevant to other management matters.