Preliminary model of krill fishery behaviour in Subarea 48.1
A simple model of the behaviour of the krill fishery in FAO Statistical Subarea 48.1 (South Shetland Islands and Antarctic Peninsula) is described. Parameters of the model are calculated from Chilean fishery data over the period 1989 to 1992. The distribution of catches predicted by the model, which is restricted to the four months December to March, compares favourably with the historical distribution of catches in the subarea. A number of management scenarios are considered which involve the closure of (i) a radial zone 50 km offshore from the South Shetland Islands, and (ii) zones 100 km around Livingston and Elephant Islands. The model predicts that the management option of closing the zones around Livingston and Elephant Islands in alternate years would result in an average yearly catch similar to that at present. However, in this scenario, the catch would be more concentrated in foraging areas of land-based predators during alternate years.