This paper presents the outcomes from the application of the risk assessment framework for distributing the krill trigger level in Area 48, which was described in Part 1 of this work (WG-FSA-16/47). This second part has two additional components of work: (i) results of the analyses using the data within the risk assessment framework, and (ii) a discussion of the implications of this work, including consideration of the matters raised by WG-EMM in 2016.  The framework presented in Part 1 is shown to enable assembling relevant data on krill, predators, management and the fishery to assess the risks of disproportionate local effects of the krill fishery.  It can be used to readily explore the potential consequences of different fishing scenarios given the state of knowledge.  The results presented here provide the input needed for the review of CM51-07 and the means by which further scenarios may be explored in that review.  The assessment primarily uses two factors to underpin the index of risk – the potential for fishing effects in areas with higher proportions of young krill (source areas) and predation pressure which is a measure of the potential for competition in local areas.  Given the scenarios here, Subarea 48.1 and, some of its SSMUs in particular, are potentially exposed to disproportionate effects of fishing, which may be occurring at present because of the much larger catch possible under CM51-07 than the baseline would indicate would be appropriate.   This is consistent with the earlier findings of Watters et al (2013) in which FOOSA was used to explore the consequences of different harvest strategies on SSMUs in Area 48. 

Japan and France have revised the next season’s (2016/17) research plan in research blocks 58.4.4b_1 and 58.4.4b_2 using the latest CCAMLR C2 and Observer data, following several advices during WG-SAM meeting in 2016.

We have used extracted data provided by CCAMLR Secretariat in this late August for the current analysis, but not used the cleaning data provided by them in this early September due to tight schedule for the submission.

The estimated median stock size in block 58.4.4b_1 and 58.4.4b_2 was 776, and 583 tonnes, respectively, in Chapman estimator considering tags released in the last three years as effective for the calculation following the recommendation in the last WG-SAM meeting. The estimated median stock size in block 58.4.4b_1 and 58.4.4b_2 was 465 and 507 tonnes, respectively, in CPUE analogy method (reference area: HIMI) using the relevant information of reference area (recent median CPUE, estimated biomass and updated area size) recommended in the last WG-SAM meeting.

The geographical distribution of different size groups shows that small fish <60cm mainly occur in the shallow area in SSRU B. It is suggested that some juveniles in SSRU B migrate to other SSRUs and become important resources for whole SSRUs, although no migration has been observed between SSRUs to date.

Predicted numbers of tag recaptures from the estimated stock sizes using both Chapman and CPUE analogy methods were generally inconsistent with the observed numbers for each block, but the numbers using Chapman were generally closer to the observed ones for both blocks.

We propose to continue the current research operation for the next fishing season with the same survey design and total sample size of 60 tonnes in order to further strengthen the stock assessments in the area. On the other hand, Japan will examine the change of survey design from 2017/18 season taking into account change of CCAMLR's regulatory framework and make a brief presentation about this issue during the WG-FSA meeting.

South Africa and Japan have revised the next season’s (2016/17) research plan in Subarea 48.6 using the latest CCAMLR C2 and Observer data, following several advices during WG-SAM meeting in 2016.

We have used extracted data provided by CCAMLR Secretariat in this late August for the current analysis, but not used the cleaning data provided by them in this early September due to tight schedule toward the submission.

We investigated the biological features of D. mawsoni in the Subarea and adjacent data- poor fisheries using latest Observer data. The geographical distribution of sizes, GSI and Fulton’s condition factors for D. mawsoni in Subarea 48.6 suggest that northward spawning migration and southward feeding migration as Ross Sea stock as suggested in the previous reports. Life history seems to be related to the Weddell gyre system from the location, but the larvae dispersion model previously reported does not support this hypothesis. However, some immature and mature fish from around Subarea 48.4 and juveniles from around west of Prydz Bay regions are speculated to migrate to Subarea 48.6 and be important resources for the population. The survey using the satellite tags along with analog tags is necessary in order to identify an appropriate stock unit in the future.

The stock sizes for research blocks were estimated using the Chapman estimator, the CPUE analogy method and preliminary CASAL models. We divided the two areas for block 48.6_2 by latitude of 55.2°S to estimate the biomasses of D. mawsoni because the recaptures were concentrated in the southern area. We considered that recaptures for 3 years at liberty is effective to estimate the appropriate biomass for D. mawsoni in the blocks following the recommendation in WG-SAM meeting in 2016.

Predicted numbers of tag recaptures from the estimated stock sizes using Chapman were relatively consistent with the observed numbers for D. mawsoni in the southern area of block 48.6_2, and blocks 48.6_3 and 48.6_4. However, the predicted numbers using the CPUE analogy method were generally inconsistent.

In WG-FSA meeting, we propose the sample sizes in each current research block for the next season generally based on precautionary exploit rate of 4 % of the Chapman estimates. In addition, Japan will present the preliminary proposals on appropriate shifting of the current research block 48.6_2 and will examine suitable shelf area to elucidate the stock structure under the optimum sea-ice conditions in the Subarea and adjacent waters from the 2017/18 season survey.

At its annual meeting in 2016, WG-EMM recalled its obligation to review and advise on Conservation Measure 51-07, which is due to lapse at the end of the 2015/16 fishing season, and presented its discussions on this subject in paragraphs 2.201 to 2.244 of its WG report.  WG-EMM recommended that work be undertaken to further develop a risk assessment approach to spatially subdivide the trigger level through an e-group and to deliver these outputs to Scientific Committee.  The risk assessment approach for subdividing the trigger level in CM 51-07 aims to minimise the risk to predator populations, in particular land-based predators, of being inadvertently or disproportionally affected by the krill fishery.  It also takes account of the desirability of different areas to the fishery and for management.  The overall risk of localised effects on predators can also be calculated for a known or nominated distribution of catches across the region.  It can be used to compare alternative fishing patterns in order to help minimise risk.  For example, the overall risk could be reduced by spreading the fishery further, creating buffer zones or having seasonal closures to minimise overlap between predators and the fishery at critical times.  This paper provides the first part of a contribution to the required review of CM51-07 in 2016 and provides a risk assessment method for distributing the trigger level to reduce the risk of disproportionate effects on predators in local areas.  It also provides the data to be used in the risk assessment.  The assessment and results are presented in a second paper. 

Closed mostly within the Weddell Sea Subarea 48.5 is one of the closed data-poor CCAMLR subareas, where stock assessment should be carried out. In spite of hard ice conditions at most part of the Sea during mostly all the year, this large water area is very similar to the Ross Sea. This similarity could be found in geographical location, bathymetric profile, currents system and follows from results of the first and the second stage of this program. It highlights the Weddell Sea as one of the most promising area for exploratory fishery of Dissostichus sp. However, fishery in Subarea 48.5 is closed on the basis data on stock assessment absence. The main objective of the present program is collecting data for reliable stock assessment and following estimation of precautionary limits in accordance with CCAMLR decision rules. The program contains schedule and research program of the third stage of the Russian multi-year research program in the Weddell Sea that is prospected for 3-5 years. Detailed plan of fishing operations, data collecting and analysis will be provided for the Scientific Committee and Commission consideration.