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    Possibility of predicting sea-ice concentration (SIC) in research block (RB) 48.6-5 (Southern part of Subarea 48.6) using sea surface temperature (SST) in RB 48.6-2 (Northern part of 48.6)

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    Numéro du document:
    WG-FSA-2019/49
    Auteur(s):
    T. Namba, R. Sarralde, S. Somhlaba and J. Pompert
    Soumis par:
    Roberto Sarralde Vizuete (Espagne)
    Approuvé par:
    Roberto Sarralde Vizuete (Espagne)
    Résumé

    It  was  reported  at  WG-SAM-2019  that  the  sea  ice  concentration  (SIC) of RB 48.6-5 corresponded well with the dynamics of monthly sea surface temperature  (SST)  anomaly  in  RB  48.6-5.   However,  in  the  prediction  of SIC  in  RB  48.6-5  using  the  monthly  SST  anomaly,  there  is  a  limitation. Because RB 48.6-5 is covered by ice for almost 100% from April to October, consequently there is very little information on the SIC during this period. However, the SST of RB 48.6-2 can be used to predict the SIC in 48.6- 5.  There  is  not  a  strong  correlation  of  SST  between  48.6-2  and  48.6-5.

    However there are similar SST positive spikes both in 48.6-2 and 48.6-5 and it is assumed that these are related.  This paper analyses the possibilities to predict the SIC in 48.6-5 for the following season using the daily SST of 48.6-2.