Analysis of potential threats from fishing to the objectives of a proposed Ross Sea region MPA

We present an analysis of potential threats from fishing to the achievement of MPA objectives identified in the Ross Sea region MPA proposal submitted jointly by New Zealand and the USA.  Ecosystem threats from fishing potentially undermine the requirements of Article II(3) paragraphs b and c.  Fishing may also threaten science objectives, e.g. preventing establishment of scientific reference areas, or undermining ongoing efforts to understand environmental change un-confounded by human impacts.  Where particular threats can be foreseen and located in space, MPA designation is one effective means of avoiding or mitigating ecosystem risks and promoting scientific objectives.  Both threat-based objectives and scientific objectives were always implicit in the systematic process of MPA design used by New Zealand and the USA over several years; in this paper we make the underlying logic more explicit, drawing upon new and previously submitted material to identify threats to the MPA objectives, map those threats in space, and detail plausible mechanisms by which those threats can be expected to occur.